XRP Breaks Below $1 for First Time Since November 2024 as Bearish Bets Surge

The Quick Take

• XRP slipped to $0.99, its lowest level since November 2024 when Trump won the US presidential election, erasing a key post-election threshold
• Rising leverage and sustained selling pressure deepened the break below the psychologically important $1.00 level across the session
• An on-chain theft of 200,000 XRP compounded negative sentiment as bearish bets rebuild across the derivatives market

XRP's fall below $1 for the first time since Donald Trump's 2024 election victory represents the unwinding of a post-election premium that accumulated on regulatory optimism surrounding the SEC's case against Ripple. The $1.00 threshold has served as a psychological and technical floor for XRP since November 2024, when Trump's win generated expectations of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment in the United States. The breach of this level, coinciding with broader crypto market selling pressure, signals that the regulatory catalyst is no longer sufficient to sustain the post-election bid and that macro and market-structure factors are now in control.

XRP's drop below $1 will likely trigger cascading liquidations across leveraged derivative positions, as the $1 level served as a margin-maintenance threshold for a significant number of long positions in perpetual futures markets. For the broader crypto market, XRP weakness is notable given its historically positive correlation with altcoin sentiment—Cardano (ADA), Stellar (XLM), and other remittance-focused tokens may face sympathy selling. The on-chain theft of 200,000 XRP adds a security-narrative headwind, potentially delaying retail re-entry. Institutions evaluating Ripple's cross-border payment technology may also pause commitments pending stabilization above the $1 marker.

Watch the SEC v. Ripple case for any final settlement or enforcement verdict, as regulatory clarity remains the primary catalyst for XRP's re-rating above the post-election entry price of $1. The derivatives market's funding rate for XRP perpetuals will signal whether bearish positioning is peaking or accelerating—a funding rate normalization from negative to neutral would indicate short-covering ahead. The macro variable is US dollar strength: XRP, priced in USD, faces additional downward pressure when the DXY advances on risk-off flows or Federal Reserve hawkishness, which compresses all dollar-denominated crypto assets simultaneously.

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