Economy & Fed Watch
Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, inflation, GDP and macro trends — live data from Federal Reserve (FRED)
Economy News
SPY Overvalued 11-12% on GF Model as August CPI Holds at 3.4% and Fed Hike Looms
GuruFocus dual analysis shows SPY 11.2-12.4% above GF Value fair estimate as August CPI held at 3.4%, with Fed rate hikes creating multiple-compression risk that compounds the overvaluation concern.
Sep 12, 2026
🇺🇸 United StatesUS CPI Report Set to Shape Fed Rate Decision as Inflation Trajectory Remains Uncertain
Federal Reserve officials have signaled readiness to raise rates further if inflation doesn't improve, even as questions persist about how effective monetary policy can be against some structural inflation drivers.
Sep 10, 2026
🇺🇸 United StatesU.S. Equities Stall as Investors Hold Breath Before Key Inflation Print
Major U.S. indexes traded in a narrow band as participants awaited the next Consumer Price Index release.
Sep 10, 2026
🇺🇸 United StatesTrump Escalates Fed Pressure as September Rate Hike Looms — Warsh in Political Crossfire
Trump administration mounts full-court press to block Fed rate hike 10 days before September FOMC meeting, testing central bank independence.
Sep 6, 2026
🇺🇸 United StatesFederal Reserve Terminates Enforcement Actions Against United Texas Bank and Quontic Bank Entities
The Federal Reserve Board announced the termination of enforcement actions against United Texas Bank, Quontic Bank Acquisition Corp., and Quontic Bank Holdings Corp., removing regulatory compliance restrictions that had constrained each institution's operational flexibility
Sep 5, 2026
🇺🇸 United StatesEconomists Abandon K-Shape Consensus as Post-Pandemic Recovery Defies Simple Categorisation
Economists are moving away from the K-shaped post-pandemic recovery framework as new data emerges
Aug 30, 2026
🇺🇸 United StatesSPY Looks 7.8% Overvalued as Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech Rattles Market Valuations
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) appears 7.8% overvalued on GuruFocus's GF Value metric as inflation concerns persist and rate hike expectations build
Aug 29, 2026
🇺🇸 United StatesTencent Music (TME) Buy Case: Fan Economy and AI Monetization Drive Upgrade Thesis
Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) is pivoting to a fan-led IP monetization model combining virtual gifts, merchandise, and live interactive events
Aug 16, 2026
Key Economic Indicators
FREDFed Funds Rate
3.63%
Aug 2026
CPI Inflation
Year-over-year
3.35%
Aug 2026
10-Year Treasury
Yield
4.68%
Aug 2026
Unemployment Rate
4.10%
Aug 2026
Real GDP Growth
Quarter-over-quarter
1.50%
Apr 2026
M2 Money Supply
Year-over-year growth
5.41%
Jul 2026
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) · Updated monthly
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US Sheds 23,000 Jobs in July; Stock Futures and Gold Surge as Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease
The US economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, the first monthly contraction in recent memory, causing stock futures to surge and gold to rally as markets sharply reduced Federal Reserve rate hike expectations
Aug 8, 2026
🇺🇸 United StatesCitadel Warns Second-Round Inflation Will Force Fed Rate Hike by September
Citadel warns the June Fed pause is temporary, with second-round inflation effects — wage-price spiral dynamics — likely to force a September rate hike despite current market pricing.
Jun 19, 2026
🇺🇸 United StatesTrump Says He 'Loves' Inflation as May CPI Hits 4.2%, a Three-Year High That Rattles Wall Street and Reprices Rate-Cut Bets
May CPI surged to 4.2% — a three-year high driven by Iran conflict energy effects — while Trump's 'love' for inflation rattled Wall Street and eliminated remaining 2026 rate-cut expectations.
Jun 14, 2026
🇺🇸 United StatesUS Job Openings Jump to 7.6 Million in April — Highest in Nearly a Year — Complicating Fed Rate-Cut Calculus
US job openings surged to 7.6 million in April — the highest in nearly a year — with a 731,000 monthly jump that complicates the Fed's rate-cut narrative and strengthens the case for Philadelphia Fed President Harker's hawkish rate-hike signal.
Jun 3, 2026