MCX gold prices rise Rs 600/10 grams; silver jumps Rs 3,000/kg ahead of Diwali, but rate hike bets linger

MCX gold futures gained Rs 613 to Rs 1,39,098 per 10 grams and December silver futures surged Rs 2,800 to Rs 1,81,925 per kg in early trade, driven by Diwali festive demand and a positive global sentiment, though persistent US inflation concerns and Federal Reserve rate hike calls may cap gains.

• MCX December gold futures up Rs 613 to Rs 1,39,098 per 10 grams — approaching a key resistance level ahead of Diwali
• MCX December silver futures surged Rs 2,800 to Rs 1,81,925 per kg — outperforming gold on industrial demand and festive jewelry buying
• Fed officials calling for further rate hikes creates a headwind — higher rates strengthen the dollar and reduce appeal of non-yielding precious metals

The pre-Diwali precious metals rally is a well-established seasonal pattern in Indian commodity markets. Gold and silver buying for gifting and jewelry accelerates in the weeks leading up to Diwali, creating reliable demand-pull across MCX futures. This year's rally has an additional tailwind from global uncertainty — geopolitical tensions, US election dynamics, and potential US-Iran diplomatic developments affecting oil markets are all supporting safe-haven demand.

The Fed rate hike uncertainty is the primary counter-narrative. Three US Federal Reserve officials calling for further rate increases signals that the monetary tightening cycle may not be fully complete. A hawkish Fed outcome at the next FOMC meeting would strengthen the US dollar, increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, and could trigger a pullback from current levels. Indian gold importers and jewelers with unhedged inventory positions face this risk.

For MCX traders, the key technical level to watch is whether gold can sustain above Rs 1,38,000 through Diwali. Silver's outperformance relative to gold (rising more in percentage terms) suggests industrial demand from electronics and solar panel manufacturing is providing an additional floor. The gold-silver ratio narrowing is typically bullish for silver on a relative basis and may continue if global manufacturing data improves.

Synthesized from 1 source — full coverage, sentiment breakdown, and forward signals below.