Kotak Securities Expert Sees Nifty 50 Hitting New All-Time High Before Year-End on Earnings Momentum

The Quick Take

• Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities predicts the Nifty 50 could reach a new all-time high before end of 2026.
• The bullish outlook is contingent on sustained earnings momentum from Indian corporates and stabilising crude oil prices.
• Nifty 50's potential all-time high would reflect recovery from mid-2026 consolidation and confirm structural bull market continuation.

Shrikant Chouhan, a senior market strategist at Kotak Securities, has put forward a bullish case for Nifty 50 achieving a new all-time high before the end of 2026. The thesis rests on two pillars: sustained corporate earnings momentum across Nifty 50 constituents, where sectors like banking, IT, and FMCG have been posting resilient quarterly results, and the stabilisation of crude oil prices — a critical input cost and inflation driver for the Indian economy that has historically been the primary macro disruptor for Indian equities.

The market implication of a Nifty 50 all-time high scenario would be broadly positive for Indian equity markets, validating the FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) re-entry thesis and sustaining DIIs' (Domestic Institutional Investors') continued systematic investment plan inflows. A new high would trigger momentum-strategy buying from quantitative funds tracking global emerging-market benchmarks, as India's weight in MSCI EM increases. Sector rotations typically accompany ATH confirmations — defensives underperform while cyclicals and financials lead.

The key forward signals to watch are the Q2 FY27 earnings season (September-October 2026) and the RBI's next Monetary Policy Committee meeting. A rate cut in the MPC meeting would act as a catalyst by reducing discount rates applied to equity valuations. The macro variable is global risk appetite: any resurgence of the US dollar or a global equity sell-off driven by recession fears could defer the Nifty 50's ATH regardless of domestic fundamentals. Track Brent crude futures as the single most important daily indicator for India's macro outlook.

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