Goldman, Commonwealth Bank Forecast RBA Rate Hike as Early as September After Hot CPI

The Quick Take

• Goldman Sachs and Commonwealth Bank now forecast an RBA rate hike as early as September 2026.
• Australia's hot CPI caused both institutions to abandon prior expectations of no further hikes in 2026.
• The forecast shift signals a broad consensus re-think among major institutional forecasters.

Australia's inflation data was sufficiently strong to prompt Goldman Sachs and Commonwealth Bank — two institutions with historically conservative RBA call track records — to formally revise their forecasts and pencil in a rate hike as early as September. The reversal from a prior 'no more hikes' base case represents a significant repricing event for rate-sensitive markets, as these institutions' calls carry weight with institutional asset managers and carry-trade participants.

The AUD is the primary beneficiary of a hawkish RBA repricing relative to peers. If the US Federal Reserve is simultaneously on hold or beginning to cut, the interest-rate differential widens sharply in Australia's favour, attracting carry inflows and compressing AUD short positions. Australian fixed-income markets face the opposite: 3-year government bonds sell off as the market discounts a higher cash rate terminal level. Banks with large floating-rate mortgage books, already benefiting from elevated net interest margins, see further upside to NIM guidance if the hike occurs.

The key signal is the RBA's next meeting statement and the Governor's presser language — specifically whether policymakers signal concern about services inflation persistence. Investors should also track the Australian wage price index, which the RBA has flagged as a core variable in its tightening calculus. The macro variable is global commodity prices: as a major commodity exporter, Australia's inflation trajectory is partly determined by energy and agricultural prices set in global markets.

Synthesized from 1 source.