Wall Street Bets +50% or -50% on SpaceX as Even Short-Seller Burry Passes on the Hype

The Quick Take

• Newly listed SpaceX options show a sharply polarized investor base, with bets placed for both +50% and -50% price moves in the near term.
• Short-seller Michael Burry has publicly declined to bet against SpaceX despite the current IPO hype, citing the risk of timing a crowded valuation.
• The extreme divergence in SpaceX options positioning reflects investor uncertainty about whether the private space company's $2.7 trillion valuation is justified.

SpaceX's newly listed options are revealing a sharply divided investor base, with significant open interest concentrated in both deeply out-of-the-money calls targeting a 50% price surge and put positions betting on an equivalent collapse, according to German financial media citing Wall Street options data. The bimodal positioning—sometimes called a 'barbelled' options book—reflects the extraordinary uncertainty that surrounds SpaceX's valuation at approximately $2.7 trillion, where the bull case (AI infrastructure dominance, Starlink monopoly, Mars commercialization) and bear case (overcrowded trade, speculative excess, execution risk) are both coherently argued among institutional participants.

Notably, short-seller Michael Burry, whose fame rests on betting against the 2008 US housing market, has publicly declined to short SpaceX despite characterizing the current investor enthusiasm as hype-driven. Burry's restraint is itself market information: it signals that even dedicated short-sellers see the risk-reward of timing a short against SpaceX as unfavorable, even if they believe the valuation is stretched. This asymmetry—where bears concede the timing risk—typically supports elevated valuations for longer than fundamental analysis would suggest, as the short-squeeze pressure from crowded long positions is amplified by the absence of credible short-side commitment.

The key forward signal for SpaceX's options market is the pace of Starlink subscriber growth and any disclosed revenue figures from SpaceX's next financial update to private shareholders, as these are the fundamental anchors for the bull case. Watch for any regulatory news from the FCC on Starlink spectrum rights or international market access, which could shift the revenue ceiling estimate. The macro variable is the broader risk appetite for high-multiple technology assets: if the ongoing rotation away from tech megacaps extends to private-market structures like SpaceX, the premium embedded in the options' call strikes could compress rapidly.

Synthesized from 1 source.