On Holding Down 50% From Peak as Football Push With Mbappé Bets on Brand Diversification

The Quick Take

• On Holding stock is down over 50% from its all-time high as the brand navigates a post-IPO growth reset
• Strategic expansion into football (signed Kylian Mbappé) and golf aims to broaden beyond running shoes
• On Holding's own 2029 growth targets confirm running shoes remain the core engine — football/golf are incremental
• The 50% discount from peak offers potential entry for investors who believe On's premium running brand is intact

On Holding's 50% decline from its all-time high is somewhat paradoxical given the brand has continued to grow revenues and expand its product categories with high-profile athlete partnerships. The Kylian Mbappé signing and the push into golf represent On's attempt to move beyond its Swiss-engineered running shoe identity and build a multi-sport premium brand that can capture a larger addressable market. However, On's own 2029 strategic plan — disclosed in investor communications — identifies running as the continued primary revenue engine, which means football and golf are brand-building investments that are unlikely to move near-term earnings materially.

The market's valuation reset on On Holding reflects a broader de-rating of premium athletic footwear companies that were priced for sustained hyper-growth during 2021-2022. At a 50% discount from peak, the stock is pricing in significantly lower long-term growth expectations. The comparison with Nike — down 81% from its own peak — is instructive: both companies are being reassessed against post-pandemic growth trajectories that proved difficult to sustain. On's differentiation is that it lacks Nike's China exposure problem, meaning its recovery thesis is cleaner but its growth ceiling is also lower.

Investors in On Holding should monitor the conversion rate from celebrity partnerships (Mbappé, golf ambassadors) into actual sell-through data in football and golf distribution channels. The 2029 revenue targets published by On will serve as progress benchmarks. The macro variable that most affects On's recovery is US consumer discretionary spending: as a premium-priced brand (shoes at $150-$250), On is disproportionately dependent on affluent consumer confidence that is currently under pressure from elevated interest rates and inflation.

Synthesized from 1 source.