Goldman Sachs Reaffirms HKEX Buy Rating, Cites H2 ADT Growth and Beijing Policy Tailwinds

The Quick Take

• Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its buy rating on HKEX, with analysts citing multiple tailwinds for H2 average daily turnover growth.
• Beijing's policy support and enthusiasm for AI-linked equities were identified as the key catalysts for HKEX revenue expansion.
• The call follows a period of weak HKEX share performance, positioning Goldman's vote of confidence as a potential inflection signal.

Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its buy rating on Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX), with analysts Thomas Wang and Simone Chen publishing a research note declaring they see multiple tailwinds to average daily turnover (ADT) and revenue growth in the second half of 2026. The SCMP Business report highlights that Beijing's policy support — including measures to attract offshore Chinese companies back to Hong Kong listings and capital market stimulus — and a surge in investor interest in AI-linked equities are identified as dual growth engines for HKEX. For an exchange whose revenue is closely correlated to the volume and value of shares traded daily, these are precisely the demand levers that drive earnings upside in the current environment.

The market implication is directly positive for HKEX's near-term earnings trajectory and, by extension, for Hong Kong financials. Higher ADT translates into fee income growth, derivatives volume expansion, and an improved case for listing new IPOs as market liquidity improves. Brokers and asset managers operating in Hong Kong benefit proportionately — firms like Hang Seng Bank, Bank of China (HK), and Futu Holdings see higher transaction revenues when ADT spikes. The Goldman buy reaffirmation may also serve as a sentiment catalyst for international investors who have been underweight Hong Kong equities, providing a credible institutional endorsement for re-engagement.

The forward signal is HKEX's next quarterly ADT disclosure and any major new listing announcement — a marquee IPO filing in H2 would serve as immediate validation of Goldman's thesis. Watch whether Beijing introduces any additional capital market measures in the July-September policy window, which has historically been used for targeted financial sector stimulus. The macro variable is the renminbi exchange rate: a stable or appreciating CNY increases the attractiveness of Hong Kong-listed Chinese assets for foreign investors and supports the ADT growth Goldman's case depends on.

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