Gold Falls 3.8%, Silver -4% Last Week; September Volatility Ahead on US Jobs Data and Iran Risk

The Quick Take

• Gold futures fell 3.8% and silver declined 4% last week; traders now expect fresh volatility in September driven by US jobs data, Fed rate expectations, and Iran tensions
• Gold's weekly decline was accelerated by Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, which pushed real yields higher and reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion
• US labour market data (non-farm payrolls) due in September is the next major trigger—a strong jobs report would validate rate-hike expectations and push gold lower
• Iran-Hormuz geopolitical risk adds an asymmetric upside scenario for gold if military escalation intensifies; traders are hedging both directions

Gold and silver markets are bracing for significant volatility in September 2026 after a turbulent week that saw gold futures decline approximately 3.8% and silver fall 4%. The primary driver of last week's precious metals selloff was Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, which shifted market expectations toward higher-for-longer US interest rates and a potential September rate hike. Rising real yields—the key fundamental driver of gold prices—reduce the opportunity cost advantage of the non-yielding metal, triggering institutional position reductions.

Looking ahead, the US non-farm payrolls report and other labour market data releases in September have become the next critical catalyst for gold and silver. Precious metals traders are watching the jobs data closely: a stronger-than-expected labour market reading would validate Warsh's hawkish thesis and likely push gold toward further losses as September rate hike probability rises. Conversely, a weaker jobs print could revive the argument that the Fed will remain patient, potentially triggering a gold recovery. The uncertainty on both sides explains why analysts across Economic Times Markets, NDTV Profit, and Hindu BusinessLine are flagging September as a high-volatility period for bullion.

Concurrently, Iran-related geopolitical risk creates an asymmetric upside scenario for gold that is keeping the selloff from deepening further. Historically, gold benefits from safe-haven demand during acute geopolitical crises, and the renewed US-Iran military confrontations near the Strait of Hormuz—which drove Brent crude to $91 per barrel—create a scenario where a further escalation could rapidly reverse the recent gold decline. Traders are therefore hedging in both directions, with some holding long gold positions as geopolitical insurance even while reducing exposure to the rate-driven downside. Manufacturing and services PMI data from major economies including India will also provide additional guidance on global growth momentum as the September risk-event calendar unfolds.

Synthesized from 3 sources.