United States Daily Briefing

Kevin Warsh was sworn in today as Fed Chair with Trump demanding he be 'totally independent' — while simultaneously calling for aggressive rate cuts, per BBC Business and The Guardian. The contradiction matters: Warsh's 2011 dissent against QE placed him firmly in the hawkish camp, and markets will price his first actual policy signal against Trump's political pressure. Watch OIS terminal rate pricing; if hawkish Warsh holds, the dot plot moves up and US equity multiples compress. The Warsh appointment is the defining macro event of 2026 for US rate structure.

Viessmann Maximilian sold $750M of Carrier Global (CARR) — a single trade that dwarfs all other insider activity this week. BSIV Hold 101 LP followed with $139M of NP (two tranches). CoreWeave's (CRWV) Chief Strategy Officer Venturo unloaded $10.8M — notable because AI infrastructure insiders cashing out marks a potential maturation point in the AI capex cycle. Four buyers at $12M total is noise against this distribution. The 82:1 sell/buy ratio is deep institutional-distribution territory. Per Sarah's framework: buy_usd ($12M) vs sell_usd ($989M) — this is the textbook 'heavy insider sales' bear signal.

Redwire (RDW) logged three positive announcements per SeekingAlpha — European Space Agency contract, additional US DoD contract wins — extending a YTD run that is outpacing the S&P 500. Defense and space is the 2026 sector rotation story: European rearmament (NATO 2% GDP push) + US DoD drone/satellite pipeline is creating a sustained capital cycle. Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) also announced a drone acquisition today (Quaze Technologies). The defense capex trade is broadening beyond Rheinmetall and L3Harris to small- and mid-cap US names.