April CPI 3.8%: Dot-Plot Anxiety Returns
Consumer prices rose 3.8% YoY in April, topping consensus by roughly 30bps, with energy costs the primary driver — leaving the Fed with no clean quarter to pivot and resetting terminal-rate expectations higher. The Dollar rallied on the print, the 10-year Treasury yield moved up, and semis sold off sharply as the AI-rally narrative took collateral damage. The read for June FOMC: hawkish hold is now the base case, not a cut, and any rate-sensitive sector from real estate to high-multiple growth has to reprice accordingly.
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