Brazil Daily Briefing

Brazil's Federal Court of Audit (TCU) issued a formal alert to the government identifying flaws in the risk analysis supporting the Treasury's guarantee on a R$12 billion loan to Correios (Brazilian Post). For Selic and fiscal anchor watchers, this is a meaningful data point: any state-backed guarantee exposure that bypasses proper risk assessment undercuts the arcabouço fiscal credibility that Copom has been relying on to justify its current Selic path. BRL/USD at current levels is sensitive to fiscal credibility signals — this TCU finding, if followed by a formal ruling, could add 0.3-0.5% to BRL selling pressure.

PBR fell -2.27% to $18.96 and PBR.A fell -2.15% to $16.88 — both tracking the direct Brent crude transmission from US-Iran diplomatic progress reported across Asian markets Wednesday. Petrobras is the IBOV's largest weight, and its daily moves dominate the index tape. The structural question is whether Iran's potential oil supply re-entry changes Petrobras's medium-term capex plan: the company's 2026-2030 strategic plan assumed a Brent floor that a resumed Iran export regime would challenge. Dividend policy (historically generous at Petrobras) would face pressure if Brent settles below $80/bbl on a sustained basis.

Sociedad Química y Minera (SQM) surged +4.36% ($83.94), the day's top LatAm gainer, as lithium prices rebounded on renewed EV demand optimism tied to the global AI infrastructure buildout narrative. SQM is the LatAm proxy for the lithium cycle — with operations in Chile's Atacama — and its single-day move of this magnitude typically signals either a spot price print or a major supply/demand news catalyst. For Brazilian investors, the SQM move offsets the Petrobras drag in a sector-diversified LatAm portfolio, but it also highlights that the IBOV itself has limited lithium exposure, making index rotation toward Chilean names necessary to access the commodity.