Tilray Down 90% From Peak — Could US Marijuana Rescheduling Revive the Stock?

The Quick Take

• Tilray stock has lost approximately 90% of its value from its peak amid a prolonged cannabis sector downturn
• The US regulatory landscape has shifted marginally in cannabis companies' favour as federal rescheduling discussions advance
• Analysts caution against expecting a quick rebound, citing structural overcapacity and persistent pricing deflation across wholesale markets

Tilray Brands has seen its stock decline roughly 90% from its all-time high as persistent cash burn, pricing pressure, and regulatory uncertainty combined to erode investor confidence. The regulatory backdrop has shifted marginally with US federal rescheduling discussions gaining momentum, though implementation timelines remain unclear and the practical economic impact on operators remains contested.

Rescheduling cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III in the US would materially change sector economics, most critically by lifting the Section 280E tax burden that prevents cannabis companies from deducting ordinary business expenses. For Tilray, which has US retail operations, this could improve after-tax profitability significantly. Peers like Curaleaf and Green Thumb would benefit similarly, though structural overcapacity and pricing deflation remain secular headwinds.

Investors should watch for concrete DEA action on the rescheduling proposal and any Congressional movement on the SAFE Banking Act, which would unlock institutional capital into cannabis equities. Without banking access and tax normalisation, the sector's capital structure remains structurally disadvantaged. The macro variable is whether the current administration prioritises cannabis reform, determining the timeline for capital market normalisation.

Synthesized from 2 sources — full coverage, sentiment breakdown, and forward signals below.