Shell Projects 65% Global LNG Demand Surge by 2050 as Data Centres Add to Asia Coal-to-Gas Transition

The Quick Take

• Shell projects global LNG demand to surge 65% by 2050, driven by Asia's coal-to-gas transition and data centre power demand growth
• Asia is expected to drive most of the LNG demand growth as countries transition from coal and expanding data centres boost electricity consumption
• Shell's 2050 LNG demand forecast reinforces the strategic value of long-term liquefaction capacity and regasification infrastructure investment

Shell has projected that global demand for liquefied natural gas will increase by approximately 65% by 2050, with Asia expected to drive most of the growth. The dual drivers identified by Shell are coal-to-gas transition across Asian economies and the rapidly expanding power demands of data centres that are building out AI computing infrastructure. Shell's position as one of the world's largest LNG producers and traders gives the forecast significant market weight, as the company's outlook shapes long-term supply investment decisions across the global LNG ecosystem. The 65% demand growth figure, if realised, would require a substantial expansion of global liquefaction capacity beyond projects already under construction or final investment decision.

The Shell demand forecast has direct implications for the capital allocation decisions of LNG project developers, national oil companies, and utilities across Asia and Europe. A confirmed 65% demand growth trajectory over 25 years incentivises investment in new liquefaction terminals — predominantly in the US, Qatar, and Australia — as well as regasification and floating storage units in importing nations. Data centre electricity demand is an emerging and underappreciated component of this thesis: hyperscalers' power needs are creating a structural floor under natural gas demand in regions where renewables alone cannot meet the scale and reliability requirements of AI computing workloads. This dynamic is particularly relevant for Southeast Asia and India, where grid reliability constraints make gas a necessary transition fuel.

Watch Shell's own capital expenditure guidance in upcoming earnings calls for LNG capacity expansion commitments that would validate the 65% demand thesis through actual investment. The macro variable is the speed of renewable energy deployment in Asia: faster-than-expected solar and wind buildout could reduce coal-to-gas transition demand, while slower clean energy scaling would accelerate natural gas needs. Track data centre power purchase agreement signings in Asia as a leading indicator of the AI-driven electricity demand component of LNG demand growth. Any major geopolitical disruption to LNG supply routes — particularly the Strait of Hormuz — would further tighten supply-demand fundamentals and validate the bullish demand outlook.

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