Sensex, Nifty Open Cautiously as Fed Decision Looms; Paytm in Focus

Sensex and Nifty opened on a cautious note as Indian investors awaited the Federal Reserve's rate decision, expected to deliver a 25 basis point hike. The dual headwind of a potential Fed hike and elevated oil prices has kept domestic institutions defensive, while FIIs have trimmed exposure to Indian equities in recent sessions as the rupee weakened toward the 96 per dollar threshold.

Paytm remained a focal point for fintech investors following the government's MDR charge announcement for UPI transactions above Rs 2,000. The regulatory shift creates divergent outcomes across payment ecosystem players, with merchant-relationship holders benefiting from new fee streams while pure-play processors face margin compression on high-value transaction routing. CLSA's upgrade of Paytm to Hold with a raised target underscores improving sentiment on the UPI fee story.

Watch the post-Fed press conference for signals on the pace of further hikes, as a hawkish tone would accelerate FII outflows from India and weigh on rate-sensitive sectors including banking, real estate, and consumer discretionary. The RBI's next MPC meeting is the critical domestic variable, with Nomura forecasting two additional RBI rate hikes before year-end, which would further compress bank NIMs and equity multiples.

Synthesized from 1 source — full coverage, sentiment breakdown, and forward signals below.