SCMP: Asia's Economic Renaissance Accelerates as America First Policy Pushes Trade Partners to Seek Alternatives

The Quick Take

• The American century is ending without crisis—America remains the world's largest economy but no longer dominates it, per SCMP analysis
• America First policies are driving trade partners and allies to seek alternative trade, investment, and certainty arrangements
• Asian economies are positioned as the fastest-growing in the 21st century, creating a structural opportunity for capital reallocation

South China Morning Post's business analysis argues that the ending of the American century is coinciding with an Asian renaissance, not in the form of a dramatic shift but a steady erosion of US economic dominance that is reshaping global capital allocation. America remains the world's largest economy and will hold that position for another decade or two, but its share of global output, trade, and investment is shrinking in ways that are forcing multinational business leaders to rethink their geographic strategies. The assertion that Asian economies will be the fastest-growing in the 21st century is backed by demographic, urbanisation, and productivity convergence trends that are well-documented.

The America First policy framework has accelerated this process by introducing uncertainty about US trade relationships, alliance reliability, and regulatory consistency that were previously taken for granted. Partners and allies across Asia, Europe, and the Americas are now actively diversifying trade flows, signing alternative trade agreements, and shifting supply chains in ways that create both threats and opportunities. For capital markets, this translates into sustained structural demand for Asian equities and bonds as global allocation percentages catch up to Asia's share of global GDP, which has grown significantly over the past two decades.

Business leaders and investors should treat this as a multi-decade structural thesis rather than a near-term trading signal. The specific market variable to watch is the pace at which major institutional allocators—sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and endowments—increase their Asia ex-Japan and China exposure targets. The macro variables that could accelerate or delay this renaissance include US-China trade policy clarity, India's manufacturing growth trajectory, and ASEAN regional integration momentum. Each of these will determine whether Asia's economic ascendancy translates into proportionate capital market growth.

Synthesized from 1 source.