S&P 500 Hit 27 New All-Time Highs in 2026 — Should You Still Buy an Index ETF?

The Quick Take

• The S&P 500 set 27 new all-time highs in 2026, prompting questions about whether index ETF investors should wait.
• Historical data consistently shows that buying at all-time highs produces above-average 12-month returns on average.
• Fear of buying at peaks often causes investors to miss significant returns by waiting for a correction that may not arrive.

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high 27 times in 2026 as of the market's recent peak, and investors are wrestling with whether purchasing an index ETF at elevated levels represents excessive risk. The question surfaces at every cycle high — and historical data consistently shows that buying on all-time highs has historically produced stronger-than-average 12-month forward returns, as new highs tend to cluster in sustained bull phases rather than marking singular tops.

The behavioral finance challenge is real: investors who buy near all-time highs experience larger drawdowns as a percentage of their entry price during subsequent corrections, even if the index eventually recovers to new highs. However, the cost of waiting — remaining in cash while the market continues advancing — often exceeds the cost of experiencing a temporary drawdown. Time-in-market historically beats timing-the-market over 10+ year horizons, which is the relevant timeframe for index ETF investors.

The optimal approach for new capital deployment near all-time highs is systematic: dollar-cost averaging over 6-12 months removes the cognitive burden of timing and statistically captures an average-cost entry between current highs and any interim correction. For existing holders, an all-time high is not a sell signal — rebalancing to target allocation is the appropriate response. Watch the Shiller CAPE ratio (currently elevated) and earnings growth trajectory as the two key fundamental inputs to valuation assessment.

Synthesized from 2 sources.