Nomura Maintains Buy on Samsung, SK Hynix with Bold Targets; Memory Shortage Seen Lasting Through 2028

The Quick Take

• Nomura reaffirmed Buy ratings on Samsung Electronics (target: KRW 670,000) and SK Hynix (target: KRW 4,700,000) in its global memory report
• The investment bank projects memory supply shortages will persist through at least 2028, driven by sustained AI infrastructure demand outpacing capacity additions
• Nomura argued the market is underpricing the profit generation capability of AI-driven memory demand across the full value chain

Nomura Securities published a global memory sector report on October 19, 2026, titled "AI market concerns and the memory outlook," maintaining its bullish stance on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix with buy recommendations and price targets of KRW 670,000 and KRW 4,700,000 respectively. The Japanese investment bank projected memory supply constraints would persist through at least 2028, maintaining that AI-driven demand is creating a structural bottleneck that the market is currently undervaluing. This view comes against a backdrop of broad pessimism about the sector, with KOSPI in an extended decline and AI spending growth concerns weighing on semiconductor valuations.

Nomura's thesis carries direct market implications for both Korean semiconductor bellwethers. The bank specifically addressed and dismissed near-term market concerns: AI company revenue slowdown, data center financing pressures, and Chinese memory maker CXMT's 4F² technology advancement. Nomura estimated that OpenAI and Anthropic's combined Q3 revenue grew roughly 507% year-on-year, arguing that even slowing sequential growth rates mask an extraordinary absolute expansion in AI workload demand that memory suppliers will struggle to keep pace with. The CXMT competitive risk was assessed as overstated by the market.

Investors should watch Samsung and SK Hynix earnings guidance — particularly HBM3 and HBM3e order visibility — as the near-term test of Nomura's supply-shortage thesis. If HBM backlog extends further into 2027-2028, the bull case strengthens; a guidance cut would directly challenge Nomura's 2028 supply shortage projection. The macro variable is AI infrastructure spending discipline from hyperscalers: AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud capex plans for 2027 are the single most important inputs to the memory demand forecast. Nomura's report would be significantly stress-tested by any hyperscaler capex pullback in next-quarter guidance.

Synthesized from 2 sources.