Nebius Stock Surged 200% in a Year on AI Infrastructure Boom — Is It Still Cheap?

The Quick Take

• Nebius Group shares have risen approximately 200% over the past year, driven by AI cloud infrastructure demand
• The AI infrastructure boom underpins Nebius' data center and GPU-cloud business growth
• Despite the 200% surge, analysts are evaluating whether Nebius' valuation still offers upside at current levels
• Nebius competes directly with AWS, Azure, and GCP for AI GPU cloud customers in Europe and globally

Nebius Group, the AI cloud infrastructure company spun out of Yandex, has delivered approximately 200% share price appreciation over the past year—one of the strongest runs in the AI infrastructure sector. The performance is driven by surging demand for GPU-powered cloud compute from AI model trainers, research institutions, and enterprise AI application developers who cannot access capacity from hyperscalers like AWS and Azure due to queue backlogs. Nebius has positioned itself as a specialist GPU cloud provider in European and global markets, competing on latency, availability, and pricing flexibility rather than geographic breadth.

The fundamental question analysts are addressing—whether Nebius remains a Buy after the 200% surge—centers on its valuation relative to revenue growth trajectory and competitive positioning. AI GPU cloud demand is growing faster than supply through 2026, providing favorable pricing power for specialist providers. However, the entry of sovereign AI clouds (national compute initiatives in France, Germany, and the UAE) and hyperscaler capacity expansions could compress margins and narrow Nebius' competitive window. Revenue multiples on AI cloud businesses have expanded significantly in 2025-2026, and Nebius must grow into an elevated valuation.

Key forward signals include Nebius' next quarterly revenue and GPU fleet utilization disclosures, which reveal whether demand is translating into durable revenue or point-in-time spikes. Any new funding round or secondary offering would provide cleaner equity valuation data than current market pricing. The macro variable: if Warsh's Fed hike cycle raises risk-free rates substantially, growth equity multiples—which drove the 200% appreciation—face compression, creating valuation headwinds even if the AI demand thesis remains intact.

Synthesized from 2 sources.