KOSPI Eyes Recovery After 5.7% Black Friday Crash as Big Tech Earnings and FOMC Loom

The Quick Take

• KOSPI plunged 5.72% to 6,690.62 on July 24 triggering multiple circuit breakers as KOSPI200 fell over 5%
• Samsung and SK Group formalized $750 billion AI semiconductor and data center cooperation deals with Broadcom, NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Anthropic at SF AI Summit
• Securities firms set KOSPI recovery band of 6,700-7,600 for the coming week pending FOMC decision and Big Tech earnings outcomes

The KOSPI experienced a severe single-day decline of 5.72% on July 24, closing at 6,690.62 — a move severe enough to trigger automatic sell-side-car protective mechanisms as the KOSPI200 index fell more than 5% intraday. The weekly context is extreme: five consecutive days of circuit-breaker activations and 66 total side-car triggers year-to-date represent a level of market stress not seen in recent cycles. Despite the shock, Korean securities firms are expressing qualified optimism, citing the Samsung-SK Group AI Summit announcement as a potential demand-side catalyst that could support a near-term technical rebound toward the 7,600 upper band.

The $750 billion Samsung-SK AI cooperation commitment — formalizing partnerships with Broadcom, NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Anthropic — is the most important near-term positive catalyst for Korean equities. This deal scale signals that Samsung and SK are securing multi-year revenue visibility in the AI semiconductor supply chain at a moment when the broader KOSPI is being repriced for macro and geopolitical risk. Samsung's HBM memory dominance and SK Hynix's packaging partnerships position Korea as a critical chokepoint in global AI hardware supply chains. Any Nvidia or hyperscaler guidance raise this earnings season directly lifts Korean semiconductor peer valuations.

The most critical forward signals are the FOMC decision and Big Tech earnings this week: a dovish Fed posture combined with strong AI-capex guidance from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple would provide the dual catalyst needed for KOSPI to recover toward the securities firms' 7,600 upper band. SK Hynix's own earnings release is an additional Korea-specific data point on HBM demand and pricing. The macro risk is military tension between the US and Iran, which is cited as the primary downside factor that could reverse any AI-driven rally if geopolitical escalation triggers a global risk-off rotation.

Synthesized from 2 sources.