India IT Q4 FY26 Earnings: TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech Numbers Decoded

The Scoreboard: Q4 FY26 at a Glance

India's IT bellwethers wrapped up fiscal year 2026 with results that told a story of resilience under pressure — deal pipelines remained healthy, but discretionary spending caution among US clients kept revenue growth muted across the board. Here is the consolidated view of how the Big Four performed in Q4 FY26.

HCLTech led on YoY revenue growth at 8.6%, powered by its software and services segment. Wipro lagged the pack at 1.8%, continuing to bear the brunt of portfolio rationalisation under CEO Srini Pallia. TCS held the largest absolute EBIT margin at 24.5%, though that was down roughly 60 basis points sequentially, reflecting wage revision cycle costs absorbed in the quarter.

Deal Wins: Who Signed the Most and Where

Total contract value (TCV) of large deals was the metric that received the most analyst scrutiny this quarter, given that revenue growth itself was tepid. Infosys led on reported large-deal TCV, closing the quarter with $2.6 billion in new large deal wins — its strongest Q4 print in six quarters. Financial services and retail verticals drove the bulk of that pipeline, with a marquee BFSI transformation deal from a European banking group accounting for roughly $400 million.

TCS reported $1.4 billion in TCV for Q4, below street expectations of $1.7 billion, with management attributing the softer number to elongated decision cycles in the healthcare vertical specifically. HCLTech came in at $1.1 billion TCV, weighted toward manufacturing and technology-sector clients. Wipro disclosed $687 million in large deal wins, a sequential improvement but still the weakest in the group on an absolute basis.

• BFSI: Infosys dominated; TCS also called out a large North American insurance modernisation win
• Retail & Consumer: HCLTech and Infosys both flagged cautious but reviving interest in supply-chain digitisation mandates
• Healthcare: The weakest vertical across all four; TCS explicitly cited decision-making delays tied to US regulatory uncertainty
• Government / Public Sector: Near-zero new wins; all four companies flagged DOGE-linked freeze as a direct drag

Management Guidance: What the C-Suites Actually Said

Infosys issued FY27 revenue growth guidance of 0% to 3% in constant currency — a conservative band that disappointed markets expecting at least a 2–5% range. CFO Jayesh Sanghrajka pointed to persistent uncertainty in US discretionary IT budgets and cautioned that the first half of FY27 would likely be softer than the second half. On the positive side, the company maintained its operating margin guidance band at 20%–22% for FY27.

TCS did not issue formal revenue guidance, consistent with its long-standing policy, but CEO K Krithivasan told analysts that attrition had stabilised at 13.3% on a trailing-twelve-month basis and that the company planned to hire 40,000 freshers in FY27, signalling confidence in demand recovery in the second half. Wipro guided Q1 FY27 revenue in the range of $2,607 million to $2,660 million, implying sequential growth of -1% to +1% — effectively flat, which the market read as a mildly negative signal. HCLTech guided FY27 revenue growth at 4.5%–5.5% in constant currency, the most constructive forward view among the four.

Macro Headwinds: Currency, Clients, and DOGE

The USD/INR exchange rate averaged roughly ₹84.7 per dollar through Q4 FY26, compared with approximately ₹82.9 a year earlier. That rupee depreciation provided a 200–230 basis point tailwind on reported INR revenue for all four companies. Strip that out, and the underlying constant-currency growth numbers look more sobering, particularly for Wipro and TCS.

US client behaviour remained the dominant variable. Across all four earnings calls, CFOs used variants of the phrase "discretionary spend caution" — a phrase that essentially describes large enterprises deferring non-essential application modernisation, cloud migration, and ERP rollouts. The DOGE-driven freeze on US federal government IT contracts hit TCS and Infosys most visibly, given both have meaningful US public-sector books. TCS management confirmed that two federal programmes were paused mid-quarter, contributing to a softer-than-expected BFSI and government segment. Infosys similarly noted one delayed contract renewal in its US government portfolio, worth an estimated $90 million annually.

Market Reaction: Nifty IT vs Nifty 50 and Stock Moves Post-Results

The Nifty IT index underperformed the broader Nifty 50 through most of Q4 FY26 (January–March 2026), declining approximately 4.2% over the quarter against a roughly flat Nifty 50. Global tech sector de-rating and rising concerns about generative AI cannibalising service revenues contributed to the sector's relative weakness heading into results season.

Post-results price action was differentiated. HCLTech was the standout winner, rallying ~4.8% on results day on the back of its above-consensus growth and constructive FY27 guidance. Infosys dropped ~3.5% after its conservative guidance band disappointed; the stock partially recovered in subsequent sessions. TCS shed ~2.1% on the weak TCV print before stabilising. Wipro was largely flat, with the market treating its results as in line with already-low expectations.

What Analysts Are Saying: Consensus Targets and Bull/Bear Cases

Brokerages scrambled to update models through mid-May 2026. Here is the post-results analyst consensus snapshot:

• TCS: Consensus 12-month target ~₹4,050. Bull case (Kotak, Motilal): AI-led deal acceleration in H2 FY27 could push revenue growth to 7%+. Bear case (Bernstein): Margin compression from wage hikes and weak discretionary spend could push EBIT toward 23%.
• Infosys: Consensus target ~₹1,720. Bull case (Nomura): A guidance upgrade at Q1 FY27 results could re-rate the stock. Bear case (CLSA): FY27 could see growth at the lower end of guidance if US macro deteriorates further.
• HCLTech: Consensus target ~₹1,890. Bull case (ICICI Securities): Software segment margin expansion and deal ramp-ups could deliver FY27 EPS upside of 8–10%. Bear case: Product revenue cyclicality remains a structural overhang.
• Wipro: Consensus target ~₹320. Bull case (Jefferies): Pallia's restructuring begins showing in revenue exit run-rate by Q3 FY27. Bear case (JPMorgan): Continued client-mining underperformance relative to peers warrants a valuation discount.

The Bottom Line for FY27

India's IT sector enters FY27 in a holding pattern. Deal pipelines are genuinely large — the aggregate TCV logged across all four firms in Q4 alone exceeded $5.8 billion — but conversion to recognised revenue remains slow, constrained by client budget cycles, geopolitical caution, and the lingering uncertainty around US government IT spend. HCLTech is the consensus near-term pick given its guidance credibility; Infosys is the higher-risk, higher-reward play on a guidance upgrade. The sector's structural AI opportunity is real, but FY27 looks like a year of setup, not payoff.