Gold to Test $5,000 by Year-End: RBC Joins Wall Street Bullish Camp Despite Rate Fears

The Quick Take

• RBC Capital Markets forecasts gold at $4,929 by year-end 2026 and $5,296 in 2027 as central bank buying persists.
• Strong US jobs data and hawkish Fed tone have raised rate fears, but central bank reserve diversification is overriding this pressure.
• Gold will likely test $5,000 an ounce by end-2026, according to the latest Wall Street consensus forming around the bullish case.

Gold is approaching the $5,000 per ounce threshold, with RBC Capital Markets becoming the latest Wall Street bank to join a bullish consensus forecasting a test of that level by year-end 2026. RBC's forecast of $4,929 for 2026 and $5,296 for 2027 is driven primarily by sustained central bank gold purchases as sovereign wealth funds and reserve managers diversify away from US dollar-denominated assets amid geopolitical fragmentation. This structural bid has proven resilient to traditional gold headwinds like real rate increases.

The persistence of central bank demand is remarkable: despite the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish posture following strong US labor market data—conditions that historically suppress gold by raising opportunity cost—institutional demand from sovereigns has absorbed selling pressure. China's central bank, which has been a consistent large buyer, and other emerging market reserve managers are reportedly accelerating purchases in response to geopolitical risk and US Treasury yield curve uncertainty.

Watch the monthly World Gold Council central bank purchase data as the primary fundamental driver of gold's trajectory; sustained purchases above 1,000 tonnes annually validate the $5,000 thesis. The macro variable is whether the Federal Reserve pivots to rate cuts in Q4 2026: a dovish shift would both weaken the dollar and reduce gold's opportunity cost simultaneously, potentially accelerating the price path to and beyond $5,000.

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