Gold to Hit $2,600, Silver $90 by Year-End on Weak US Data and Central Bank Buying

The Quick Take

• Metals Focus MD Philip Newman forecasts gold to hit $2,600/oz and silver to reach $90 by year-end
• Weak US data, tariff tensions, and steady central bank buying are cited as the primary bullish drivers
• India's festival gold demand is cautious this year, though price stabilization could trigger seasonal buying

Metals Focus Managing Director Philip Newman forecasted gold prices could reach $2,600 per ounce by year-end, testing record highs, with silver potentially climbing to $90 per troy ounce. Newman pointed to three primary drivers for the rally thesis: weak United States economic data, persistent tariff tensions that support safe-haven demand, and continued central bank gold purchases from emerging market monetary authorities diversifying reserves away from US dollar assets. CNBC TV18 reported the forecast amid broader precious metals market discussion around the trajectory of gold following a period of consolidation near current levels.

Central bank gold demand has been one of the most significant structural changes in the gold market over the past three years, with institutions from China, India, Poland, Turkey, and multiple Middle Eastern economies consistently adding to reserves. This institutional buying has provided price support independent of traditional retail and ETF-driven demand, creating a more resilient floor for gold prices during periods when Western investor interest wanes. Newman's reference to weak US data suggests he expects Federal Reserve rate cuts to provide an additional tailwind, as lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals relative to cash and bonds.

Silver's projected path to $90 and the possibility of three-digit silver in 2027 reflects the metal's dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity with growing demand in solar panels and electronics. Newman noted that India's festival demand has been cautious this year, a key seasonal variable for gold consumption as the October-November festival season typically generates significant retail jewelry buying. If gold approaches $2,600, India's muted festival demand could become an upside catalyst if prices stabilize and consumer hesitation gives way to opportunistic purchases. Precious metals investors should monitor central bank buying data and Indian import figures as leading demand indicators.

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