Global Semiconductor Equipment Sales Set $165.9 Billion Record in 2026 as China Leads Surge

The Quick Take

• Global semiconductor equipment OEM sales are projected to hit $165.9 billion in 2026, a 23.2% year-on-year growth rate.
• China leads the global equipment spending surge, with the market forecast to reach $229 billion by 2028.
• India's semiconductor fab aspirations are fuelled by record global chip equipment spending now reaching $165.9 billion.

Global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are on course for a historic 2026, with OEM revenues projected to reach $165.9 billion — a 23.2% year-on-year advance — as AI-driven chip demand accelerates investment across memory, logic, and advanced packaging production. China leads the growth surge, benefiting from substantial domestic investment in semiconductor self-sufficiency as geopolitical restrictions push Chinese chipmakers to build independent supply chains. The forecast trajectory toward $229 billion by 2028 implies sustained double-digit annual growth in equipment spending, driven by both China's domestic push and global AI infrastructure buildout that has no near-term ceiling in sight.

The equipment spending cycle directly benefits the world's major semiconductor tool vendors — ASML in lithography, Applied Materials in deposition and etch, Lam Research in etch and cleaning, and Tokyo Electron in process tools. China's prominent role in the growth surge carries export-control risk: US restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipment sales to China remain in force, potentially concentrating China's equipment demand in legacy-node tools and domestic alternatives. This bifurcation creates a two-speed equipment market — advanced-node equipment constrained by export controls for China, while legacy-node tools boom on China's sustained import demand for established process nodes.

ASML's quarterly order book updates are the leading indicator for equipment cycle trajectory, as its extreme ultraviolet machine backlog sets the pace for advanced node expansion globally. Semiconductor industry association forecasts for H2 2026 billings will be the next consensus checkpoint after the $165.9 billion 2026 estimate. The macro variable is the US-China technology decoupling pace: if export controls tighten further on legacy-node equipment, China's semiconductor equipment mix shifts toward domestic Chinese suppliers like Naura Technology and AMEC, reducing Western vendor revenue contribution from China's powerful growth.

Synthesized from 2 sources.