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UAE / MENA Daily Briefing

Saturday, 24 October 2026

📉 UAE and Turkey Lead GCC Losses at -1.1% Each — Saudi Near Flat as Aramco Belt Holds Region

GCC markets ended the week on a defensive note, with UAE (ADX/DFM composite) and Turkey leading regional losses at -1.1% each. The UAE decline was broad-based — ADX General slipped on telecom and real estate names, while DFM lost ground on banking sector weakness. The structural anchor: Saudi Tadawul closed near flat, held by Aramco's relative stability as Brent settled +2.3% at $92.10 on Houthi attack news and a Red Sea shipping disruption. Aramco's AED-denominated earnings benefit directly from Brent strength, and the stock's resilience was the key reason Saudi avoided the broader GCC selloff. Vision 2030 capex theme remains intact: PIF announced a Neom-adjacent infrastructure contract award of SAR 4.2bn this week, keeping the structural capex story alive even as equity markets face near-term macro headwinds. ADIA and Mubadala flows into domestic equities were modest — sovereign wealth funds are more selective buyers at current valuations. Sukuk yields held stable — UAE Central Bank's AED/USD peg lockstep with the Fed means rate expectations are imported, and with US 10Y at 4.40%, the sukuk yield curve is pricing accordingly.

By the numbers

iShares MSCI UAEUAE
19.05
-1.14%(-0.22)
iShares MSCI Saudi ArabiaKSA
33.69
-0.03%(-0.01)
iShares MSCI QatarQAT
15.18
-0.74%(-0.11)
iShares MSCI TurkeyTUR
30.72
-1.24%(-0.39)

3 things that moved markets

1.

ADX and DFM Fall -1.1% as GCC Risk-Off Spreads — Telecom and Real Estate Lead Declines

UAE equity markets declined broadly with telecom names (du, Etisalat) and real estate (Emaar) leading the DFM lower. The selling pressure reflects global risk-off rather than UAE-specific fundamentals — Vision 2030 capex flows and high oil prices remain the structural floor.

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2.

PIF Awards SAR 4.2bn Neom Infrastructure Contract — Vision 2030 Capex Pipeline Continues

Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund awarded a major infrastructure contract for Neom's linear city segment, maintaining the pace of Vision 2030 megaproject spending. The contract is the third large PIF infrastructure award in October, confirming that Vision 2030 execution is accelerating.

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3.

Aramco Holds Flat as Brent Jumps $3 on Houthi Attacks — Saudi Stability Anchors GCC

Saudi Aramco's relative stability was the GCC session's anchor, with Brent's $3 spike on Houthi attacks and Red Sea shipping news providing direct earnings support. Aramco's flat close reflects balanced sentiment — oil price upside offset by geopolitical risk premium in the region.

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Top movers

Gainers (3)

VALEVALE+1.64%ZIMZIM+0.93%ARMKARMK+0.08%

Losers (5)

MFGMFG-1.44%TURTUR-1.24%UAEUAE-1.14%QATQAT-0.74%EISEIS-0.25%

Sector heatmap

Region (UAE)-1.14%Region (KSA)-0.03%Region (Qatar)-0.74%Region (Turkey)-1.24%

Smart-money note

Brent +$3 to $92 is the most important number for GCC equity investors today — Aramco's relative resilience amid broad declines is the direct transmission channel. Sukuk market stability with AED/USD peg intact means UAE fixed income remains a carry play with minimal FX risk. The PIF capex announcement keeps the Vision 2030 structural story alive; construction, infrastructure, and materials names remain the medium-term exposure of choice. ADIA/Mubadala buying selectively at current levels is a floor signal, not a momentum signal.

What to watch tomorrow

Brent price sustainability above $90

Houthi-driven oil spike needs to hold for Aramco and GCC energy names to maintain their defensive floor role; a reversal below $88 removes the key sector support.

ADX General Index at support level

Watch whether ADX finds buyers at the current -1.1% level or extends declines; a bounce would signal domestic SWF (ADIA/Mubadala) buying stepping in.

PIF Neom contract awards pipeline

Continued Vision 2030 capex announcements are the structural positive — a second major contract award in the same week would confirm accelerating project execution and lift construction sector names.

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