UAE / MENA Daily Briefing

The UAE's Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre confirmed 2025 full-year real GDP growth of 6.2%, bringing total GDP to $517.3 billion, with the non-oil segment outperforming at 6.8% growth to $408.4 billion — the strongest evidence yet that the UAE's Vision 2030-aligned diversification from hydrocarbon dependency is delivering measurable results. For DFM and ADX investors, this data validates the structural bull case: an economy growing at 6%+ with two-thirds of output coming from non-oil sectors commands a premium over pure hydrocarbon economies, and MSCI EM weighting decisions are sensitive to GDP trajectory. ADIA and Mubadala's aggressive international allocation strategies are being funded by this growth engine, sustaining the sovereign wealth fund capital deployment that underpins global asset price support.

AGBI reports that GCC sovereign wealth funds could be forced to scale back overseas energy investment commitments as Gulf states face tens of billions in infrastructure repair costs from regional conflict damage. This would represent a significant change in the capital flows that have been supporting global energy asset valuations — ADIA, Mubadala, PIF, and QIA have collectively been among the most active acquirers of international energy infrastructure and clean energy assets over the past three years. A reallocation of sovereign wealth toward domestic repair and reconstruction would reduce the bid under international energy M&A and direct investment, with secondary effects on the valuations of Western energy companies that have been counting on GCC capital as a strategic buyer.

The UAE Fuel Price Committee has set June 2026 fuel prices with Super 98 at AED3.95 per liter and Special 95 at AED3.83, while diesel recorded a decline to AED4.33 — reflecting the AED's USD peg transmission of lower global crude benchmarks into domestic pump prices. For UAE equity investors, diesel price movements are closely watched by logistics, construction, and real estate development companies that carry significant fleet and machinery fuel costs. The decline in diesel pricing is a direct input cost relief for UAE's active infrastructure and construction sector, which is running at elevated utilization rates on Vision 2030-aligned mega-projects including Neom support infrastructure and Abu Dhabi industrial expansion zones.