Japan Daily Briefing

Toyo Keizai's weekend analysis asked whether Nvidia can sustain its share price without Jensen Huang — drawing comparisons to Apple's post-Jobs trajectory. The Apple analogy is imperfect but instructive: Apple's stock dipped 10% in the year after Jobs' death but recovered as the product pipeline proved institutional. For Japan's semicap chain — Tokyo Electron (EUV patterning materials), Disco (wafer dicing), Advantest (HBM test equipment) — the question is pipeline continuity of Blackwell GPU production, not the CEO brand. Interim CEO Colette Kress's first investor call will be the event to watch; her prior experience as Nvidia CFO gives her numbers credibility even if she lacks Huang's keynote charisma.

Autos sector +2.11% — the strongest Japan sector today — reflects two simultaneous tailwinds: a weakening yen (USD/JPY testing 160 makes export revenue more valuable in yen terms) and Toyota's ongoing capital return program. The Buffett-Japan sogo shosha trade is amplifying the sector move: Mitsubishi Corp and Mitsui & Co both outperformed as trading houses benefit from both commodity tailwinds and yen-adjusted earnings. METI's TSE prime-market governance reforms (targeting PBR>1) are pushing companies toward buybacks over cash hoarding — autos and trading houses have the balance sheets to execute this fastest.

CoreWeave — which Nvidia backs as a primary Blackwell GPU deployment customer — posted 2.7x revenue growth in Q3 but Toyo Keizai flagged ongoing concerns about its reliance on Nvidia's own capital cycle. If Nvidia's $400 billion AI ecosystem commitment slows under new leadership, CoreWeave's growth funding thesis becomes circular. For Japan investors, CoreWeave's US listed paper is a leading indicator for how the market is pricing Nvidia-dependent AI infrastructure demand — watch the CoreWeave/Nvidia relative performance spread as a signal of ecosystem health.