India Daily Briefing

Foreign institutional investors turned decisive net buyers today at ₹3,115 Crore (buy ₹16,499 Crore, sell ₹13,385 Crore), the largest single-session FII inflow since early October. DII ran a mild net sell of ₹392 Crore — the mirror image of the usual defensive absorption pattern. The 10-day FII history shows clustering of net buying on Oct 27 (₹4,240 Crore), Oct 30 (₹3,599 Crore), and Nov 2 (₹3,115 Crore) — three of the last five sessions — suggesting a structured allocation rotation back into Indian equities rather than tactical noise. Triggers include USD weakness, crude oil's retreat, and improving Q2 earnings prints across Nifty heavyweights.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said she 'recognises the voice' of investors amid persistent FPI outflow concerns, a signal being read by the Street as Budget-season positioning on LTCG and STT rates. Any reduction to LTCG tax (currently 12.5% above ₹1.25 lakh threshold) or stamp duty would structurally improve India's cost-of-investing equation vs other EM markets competing for FPI allocation. Mint Markets reported Sitharaman's comments as a departure from prior official reticence — watch for SEBI's budget submission on market structure reforms as a parallel catalyst.

ITC's September-quarter net profit dropped 18.45% to ₹4,229 Crore even as revenue rose 43.85% — a classic tax-impact margin compression story. Cigarette EBIT fell over 27% as higher GST-era excise hit operating leverage hard. FMCG, paperboards, and agri-business all grew, validating the conglomerate diversification thesis, but cigarettes still dominate PAT. ITC shares will be in focus Tuesday: the miss sets up a downgrade cycle on near-term forecasts, but the FMCG re-rating thesis has a longer runway. Key question is whether institutional holders use the dip as an accumulation window or rotate out into the Oil & Gas winners.