India Daily Briefing

Sunil Sanghai flagged that a 25bps repo rate hike is no longer a tail risk — oil above $100 and sticky core inflation are giving the MPC cover to tighten. A hike would directly compress bank NIMs, squeeze NBFC borrowing costs, and extend the valuation de-rating on rate-sensitive names like housing finance and small-cap lenders. Watch the next MPC meeting — any front-running by bond markets will show up in 10-year G-sec yields first.

TCS, Tech Mahindra, Coforge, and Mphasis are queuing Q2 results in the next three weeks, and Accenture's inline guidance gave bulls confidence to accumulate — IT gained 2.17% on a day when 9 of 11 other sectors bled. The key question isn't whether Q2 revenue meets expectations but whether deal-win commentary signals AI-led project ramp or continued discretionary caution. LTM and Cyient flagged as setups with 32%+ return potential — sector's defensive positioning makes these entry windows attractive.

Brent is stuck in a $96-$102 band despite OPEC+ holding November targets steady — Iranian Hormuz rhetoric, Saudi voluntary cut discipline, and a weak dollar provide a collective floor. For India, every $10 of sustained oil elevation adds ~35-40bps to WPI inflation and widens the CAD by ~$15bn annualised — both give the RBI reason to pause easing. Auto's 3.46% single-day collapse suggests the market is already front-running fuel cost pass-through risk.