India Daily Briefing

The MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in a unanimous decision, citing geopolitical risks — specifically the Iran war's oil-price transmission into domestic inflation — as a reason for continued caution. Separately, the government extended Deputy Governor Swaminathan J's tenure by two years, providing continuity at the regulatory helm. For Bank Nifty bulls, this is confirmation that the rate cycle plateau is well-anchored; NIM pressure from any surprise hike is off the table near-term.

Economic Times reporting confirms India and the United States are close to finalising the first phase of an interim trade agreement, with July now the working deadline. The deal is expected to cover tariff relief on select manufactured goods and services — directly relevant to Indian IT exporters and pharma companies shipping to the US. An interim pact removes a key overhang for Nifty IT names that have traded at a discount since US tariff escalation began; watch for re-rating if details confirm IT services are covered.

GQG Partners, the Florida-based fund that made a high-profile bet on Adani Group stocks in 2023, sold stakes in Adani Enterprises and Adani Energy Solutions worth approximately ₹5,750 Crore in a block deal. The position reduction comes even as Adani Group stocks have largely recovered from the 2023 Hindenburg shock. Institutional profit-taking at this scale in a concentrated Adani holding is a flow signal: watch whether this triggers DII bottom-fishing in both names next week, or whether it signals reduced conviction from the international institutional community on the Adani re-rating thesis.