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Hong Kong Daily Briefing

Saturday, 7 November 2026

⚖️ HKEX Posts First Quarterly Profit Decline in Two Years as Exchange Fund Earnings Tumble 74% — But Southbound Flows Cushion the Selloff

Hong Kong's equity market held a narrow green in a volatile Friday session, with the iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF gaining 0.47% to 23.32 — a relative outperformance against a backdrop of Nasdaq -5.52% and widespread Asia-Pacific selling. EV/Mobility (+5.91%) and Fintech (+6.25%) were the top sector performers through Mainland China-linked names, with LU, XPEV, and NIO among the strongest. However, domestic HK structural data was poor: HKEX reported its first quarterly profit decline in over two years, and the HKMA disclosed Exchange Fund investment earnings tumbled 74% amid market turbulence. SCMP Business reported that financial leaders attending Hong Kong's high-profile wealth summit chose to 'tiptoe around' Beijing's asset scrutiny rather than confront it — a sign of the political fog overhanging capital allocation decisions in the city. The HKD peg held firm at 7.78, and no HKMA intervention was needed, suggesting USD-denominated demand for HK assets is stabilizing.

By the numbers

iShares MSCI HKEWH
23.32
+0.47%(+0.11)
iShares China Large-CapFXI
34.95
+0.03%(+0.01)

3 things that moved markets

1.

HKEX Profit Decline and Exchange Fund -74% Signal Structural Weakness

SCMP Business reported HKEX posted its first quarterly profit decline in more than two years as Hong Kong market activity cooled. Simultaneously, HKMA disclosed its Exchange Fund — the reserve portfolio backing the currency peg — earned 74% less than the prior year period. These two data points compound: HKEX earnings reflect lower turnover and IPO activity (the IPO pipeline has been thin since 2023), while Exchange Fund underperformance reflects the same equity market weakness that's been pressuring investor confidence. The peg itself is not at risk — USD/HKD at 7.78 is well within the 7.75-7.85 band — but the profit warnings signal that the two pillars of HK financial infrastructure are both under simultaneous stress.

Read at SCMP Business ↗
2.

Financial Leaders Sidestep Beijing Asset Scrutiny at HK Wealth Summit

SCMP Business reported that senior global financial figures gathered at Hong Kong's wealth management summit chose to celebrate HK's wealth management boom while carefully avoiding direct comment on Beijing's intensifying asset scrutiny — the regulatory environment that has caused some high-net-worth Mainland clients to route funds through Singapore and Dubai instead. The optics are significant: Hong Kong's pitch as an open financial hub now requires performing a careful dance between Western institutional expectations and Mainland regulatory realities. The Southbound Stock Connect +HK$3.1bn today suggests Mainland money is still flowing into HK assets despite the geopolitical fog — that's the most concrete floor under HSI.

Read at SCMP Business ↗
3.

Solana Eyes HK Expansion as Tokenisation Demand Grows

SCMP Business reported that crypto heavyweight Solana is targeting Hong Kong expansion to capture growing tokenisation demand — a signal that institutional-grade crypto infrastructure is following the city's strategic push to become Asia's digital-asset hub. The timing is notable: Solana's move comes alongside Beijing's ongoing restrictions on crypto trading for Mainland Chinese investors, making HK a natural valve for regional digital asset capital that can't legally operate through the Mainland. For HKEX, tokenised real assets (REITs, bonds) represent a potential new revenue stream that would directly address the structural earnings decline flagged above.

Read at SCMP Business ↗

Top movers

Gainers (5)

LULU+8.23%XPEVXPEV+6.67%IQIQ+6.50%NIONIO+5.94%LILI+5.12%

Losers (4)

PDDPDD-1.10%TCEHYTCEHY-0.87%VIPSVIPS-0.79%TALTAL-0.29%

Sector heatmap

Internet/Platform+1.87%EV/Mobility+5.91%Education+0.81%Fintech+6.25%Consumer+0.40%Property/Real Est+0.16%Travel+1.28%

Smart-money note

Southbound Stock Connect data is the smart money signal for HK today. If Mainland buyers are stepping in at current HSI levels despite the global risk-off environment, it signals that domestic Chinese institutions believe the government stabilization calls will work — and that HK-listed China tech names (Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba HK) are offering value at current multiples. The weak-side convertibility undertaking at USD/HKD 7.85 is nowhere in sight, confirming the HKMA doesn't need to intervene. The tactical trade: HKEX itself is now a value case at a price-to-book well below global exchange peers, though the structural IPO drought needs to reverse to make that thesis work. Watch for any major IPO announcement in the next 30 days as a leading indicator.

What to watch tomorrow

HSI vs 17,500 Support

17,500 is the near-term technical floor where three periods of Southbound buying have historically stepped in — below that level is a re-test of the 2024 low.

Tencent Q3 Results (Nov 13)

Tencent is the biggest HSI weight; a revenue beat would single-handedly re-rate HK tech and reverse the recent HSCEI underperformance vs Mainland CSI 300.

USD/HKD Peg Width

Watch for any HKD weakening toward 7.82-7.85 — that's where HKMA intervention and higher HK interbank rates historically emerge, tightening local funding conditions.

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