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China Daily Briefing

Sunday, 25 October 2026

📉 China equities down as BABA -2.14% and $3.5tn stock rout deepens on sinking corporate profits

Chinese equity markets extended their decline on Friday, with the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) off -0.43% to 32.31 and the KraneShares China Internet ETF (KWEB) down -0.30% to 23.14, marking another session of persistent selling pressure. Alibaba (BABA, -2.14%) led blue-chip losses while fintech and education names bore the steepest sectoral heat — Lufax (LU) collapsed -4.05% and TAL Education -2.77%, consistent with the ongoing regulatory and profitability squeeze on these sectors. The broader macro story is stark: Business Standard reported today that China's equity market has lost $3.5 trillion in value from a May peak, with sinking corporate profits turning what began as a valuation correction into a fundamentals-driven rout. The one bright spot — XPEV (XPeng, +1.54%) and IQ (iQIYI, +1.79%) — reflects BYD and EV-adjacent investors rotating from US ADR exposure into domestically-oriented tech names ahead of BYD's European factory announcement.

By the numbers

iShares China Large-CapFXI
32.31
-0.43%(-0.14)
KraneShares China InternetKWEB
23.14
-0.30%(-0.07)

3 things that moved markets

1.

BYD to Build European Factories to Combat Trade Barriers

BYD has announced plans to build new manufacturing plants in Europe in direct response to the EU's punitive EV tariffs targeting Chinese automakers, positioning itself as a local producer to bypass the tariff barrier entirely. This is a pivotal strategic move: European EV factory establishment by a Chinese manufacturer converts a trade-war headwind into a local-content advantage, and sets a competitive template that smaller Chinese EV makers lack the capital to replicate. For BYD investors, the European factory announcement is positive long-term (market access) but near-term capital-intensive — watch the capex guidance and factory location/partnership details for margin impact assessment.

Read at SCMP Business ↗
2.

China's $3.5tn Stock Rout Deepens on Sinking Profits

China's equity market has lost $3.5 trillion in market value since its May 2026 peak, and Business Standard reports that sinking corporate profitability is transforming a valuation-based selloff into a fundamentals-driven bear market with deeper structural roots. The Fintech sector's -1.89% lead lower — with Lufax falling -4.05% — illustrates how profitability pressures in interest-rate-sensitive financial businesses are compressing earnings multiples that were already at historic lows post-2021 regulatory cycle. The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite levels are approaching psychological support zones that PBOC officials are known to monitor; any MLF injection or Northbound Stock Connect flow reversal would signal coordinated policy stabilization.

Read at business-standard.com ↗
3.

HK Developers Pivot From Mainland Residential to Commercial

Hong Kong's major property developers are pivoting their mainland China investment strategies away from residential projects — where oversupply and developer distress remain structural — toward commercial real estate, according to SCMP Business. This pivot reflects the accumulated lesson of the Country Garden and Evergrande crises: Hong Kong-based developers with offshore funding can absorb the shift to commercial, but it also signals a further retreat from the mainland housing market recovery thesis. For HKEX-listed property names, the commercial pivot creates a new risk profile: commercial yields in mainland China have compressed with economic activity, meaning investors must assess cap rate sustainability rather than pure residential-volume recovery.

Read at SCMP Business ↗

Top movers

Gainers (5)

IQIQ+1.79%XPEVXPEV+1.54%TCOMTCOM+0.53%FUTUFUTU+0.27%BILIBILI+0.07%

Losers (5)

LULU-4.05%TALTAL-2.77%BABABABA-2.14%VIPSVIPS-1.80%JDJD-1.25%

Sector heatmap

Internet/Platform-0.45%EV/Mobility+0.08%Education-1.64%Fintech-1.89%Consumer-0.82%Property/Real Est-0.93%Travel+0.53%

Smart-money note

Southbound Stock Connect flows are the key daily metric James Chen tracks — today's data wasn't directly available in the feed, but XPEV's +1.54% and IQ's +1.79% as the top gainers against a red board suggests mainland liquidity is selectively rotating into domestically-oriented tech and EV names rather than exiting entirely. Lufax's -4.05% collapse deserves close attention: as a Ping An-backed microfinance and consumer credit platform, Lufax's distress signals extend beyond single-stock risk to broader questions about China's consumer credit health and Ping An Group's fintech portfolio exposure. BABA's -2.14% underperformance against peers like TCOM (+0.53%) suggests institutional positioning is shifting away from Alibaba's marketplace business and toward travel/local services names that benefit from China's domestic consumption stabilization theme. PBOC MLF operations this week and any LPR announcement will set the near-term tone for Chinese equities: a 10bp LPR cut could provide a floor, while keeping rates steady into a weakening profit cycle deepens the bear market math. The $3.5tn rout number puts China's equities at among the worst performing large markets YTD globally — the political dimension matters here: NDRC and Ministry of Finance coordination on fiscal stimulus timing is the policy trigger the market is waiting for.

What to watch tomorrow

PBOC MLF / LPR Operations

Any PBOC rate reduction or large-scale liquidity injection would signal policy intent to stabilize equities; the MLF rate is the lever the market is watching most closely given its direct transmission to bank lending rates and property sector refinancing.

BYD European Factory Details

BYD's European factory announcement needs specifics — country, capacity, timeline, local partner — to assess near-term capex burden versus long-term tariff bypass value; the details will move both BYD HK-listed shares and European EV incumbents.

Northbound / Southbound Stock Connect Data

Daily Stock Connect flow direction is the institutional proxy for whether offshore funds are still de-risking China or whether mainland smart money is buying the dip; a Southbound surge of >HK$3bn signals domestic confidence in current levels.

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