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China Daily Briefing

Friday, 25 September 2026

📉 China ADRs retreat broadly — FXI -0.82% as all seven tracked sectors end red, with Fintech -2.28% leading the selloff

Friday's session was a clean sector-wide retreat for China-linked equities: iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) fell 0.82% to 33.96 and KraneShares China Internet (KWEB) lost 0.20% to 24.64. Every sector tracked ended in the red — Fintech -2.28% was the worst, followed by Travel -1.45%, EV/Mobility -1.27%, and Education -1.15%. The only bright spots at the name level were FUTU +2.85% (brokerage, likely benefiting from lower HK transaction volumes driving margin compression fears and a short-squeeze) and IQ +1.92%. Macro context: US-China trade negotiators are reportedly set to reveal deal progress on September 28th, which is keeping institutional sellers from going all-in but also preventing buyers from adding aggressively ahead of the announcement.

By the numbers

iShares China Large-CapFXI
33.96
-0.82%(-0.28)
KraneShares China InternetKWEB
24.59
-0.41%(-0.10)

3 things that moved markets

1.

Eswin Seeks $300m HK IPO to Fund RISC-V Chipmaking

Chinese semiconductor startup Eswin is targeting a $300 million Hong Kong IPO ahead of an October debut — a significant capital raise for a RISC-V architecture firm that operates in the strategic intersection of China's chip self-sufficiency drive and the global open-architecture movement. RISC-V is Beijing's preferred alternative to ARM-licensed cores precisely because it's royalty-free and immune to US export-control leverage. Eswin's IPO pricing and demand will be a read on how seriously HK institutional money is pricing China's semiconductor independence narrative versus the sector's persistent over-capacity in mature nodes. Watch Northbound and Southbound flows after listing for mainland institutional follow-through.

Read at SCMP Business ↗
2.

EV Makers vs Battery Firms Over Resumed Lithium-Ion Tax

SCMP Business reported a supply chain standoff: China's EV manufacturers and battery producers are each resisting absorbing the cost of a resumed lithium-ion battery tax, with both sides lobbying the NDRC to put the burden on the other. The commercial stakes are material — lithium-ion battery costs represent 35-45% of EV production cost, and any tax pass-through erodes already-thin margins in the EV sector (NIO, Li Auto, BYD) or squeezes cell makers (CATL, EVE). The EV/Mobility sector's -1.27% session close is partly priced in anxiety about this cost dispute's resolution, with CATL's next earnings release being the first event where actual margin guidance will crystallize who absorbs the hit.

Read at SCMP Business ↗
3.

DBS: Investors Pivot to Selective China Tech as Property Fades

DBS Bank's strategy team published analysis (via SCMP) recommending investors rotate from China property to selective technology bets, arguing property's growth contribution is structurally exhausted. This is a meaningful institutional signal — DBS manages significant China AUM and its sector calls move Southbound flow weightings. The 'selective tech' framing is critical: DBS is not recommending a broad KWEB allocation but individual platform names (BABA, Tencent, PDD) that have completed regulatory deleveraging cycles. With Fintech down 2.28% on Friday, the market is clearly not yet aligned with this thesis — but DBS making it public creates a potential catalyst for a reversion trade in platform names with strong free cash flow generation.

Read at SCMP Business ↗

Top movers

Gainers (5)

FUTUFUTU+2.65%IQIQ+1.92%TMETME+0.72%BILIBILI+0.68%HTHTHTHT+0.17%

Losers (5)

LULU-6.67%LILI-2.21%TALTAL-2.05%NTESNTES-1.89%TCOMTCOM-1.67%

Sector heatmap

Internet/Platform-0.21%EV/Mobility-1.46%Education-1.22%Fintech-2.01%Consumer-0.43%Property/Real Est-0.78%Travel-1.67%

Smart-money note

With all seven China sectors in the red on Friday and FXI near the -1% bear threshold, institutional positioning reads as cautious rather than actively bearish. The tell is FUTU +2.85% — the HK/China brokerage counter rarely outperforms in genuine risk-off sessions unless short-covering or a specific catalyst is driving it. Stock Connect Southbound flows data (not available in real-time from this briefing's dataset) will be the definitive smart-money read: if mainland buyers stepped into the Tencent-BABA complex at Friday's lows, the near-term floor is ~FXI 33.50. The September 28th US-China trade announcement looms as a binary event — Greer (USTR) telegraphed a 'reveal', and the market's muted selloff rather than a cascade suggests expectations are tilted toward a partial deal, not a collapse. Any deal positive that opens a tariff relief path for EV and battery exports could reverse the sector's -1.27% and bring FXI back to 34.50 within a session.

What to watch tomorrow

Sept 28 Trade Deal Reveal

USTR Greer has publicly said the September 28th date will surface US-China negotiation outcomes. Markets have a muted-bear positioning ahead of this announcement — a positive tariff development, particularly on EVs or tech hardware, would trigger an immediate FXI and KWEB rally. A no-deal or collapse outcome pushes FXI toward 33.00.

Stock Connect Southbound Flows

Monday's Southbound flow data will confirm whether mainland institutional buyers defended the Friday lows. Net flows above +HK$2bn would signal domestic confidence in the current level; heavy selling would validate a break below FXI 33.50 support.

Eswin IPO Order Book

The RISC-V chipmaker's $300m HK IPO order book will open next week. Institutional demand signals how deeply HK and global investors are willing to price China's chip self-sufficiency narrative — a key read for the broader semiconductor sector's forward multiple.

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