Canada Daily Briefing

Canada's total mortgage debt has reached a record high while delinquency rates have jumped 45% — a combination that frames the BoC's rate-path dilemma precisely. Lower rates would ease household debt service but risks re-inflating a housing market that has been pricing-in cuts for two years; holding rates steady contains the bubble but accelerates delinquency growth in a market with some of the world's highest household debt-to-income ratios. For the Big Six banks, rising delinquencies mean provisions for credit losses will need to increase in H2 — watch RY, TD, and BMO earnings commentary in the next quarterly cycle for explicit guidance on mortgage book stress.

BlackBerry surged 7.26% to 6.65 Thursday — its largest single-session move in recent months — following CFO Tim Foote's appearance at the CIBC Technology and Innovation Conference, where he outlined BB's positioning in AI-driven cybersecurity and connected vehicle software. The stock has been quietly rebuilding a technology narrative after years of restructuring, and the CIBC conference appearance gave institutional investors a clean public-markets venue to re-engage. At a market cap still well below its peak, any credible AI-security revenue story creates significant upside optionality — the 7.3% move suggests the Street is taking the thesis more seriously.

Barrick Gold (GOLD) added +1.88% to 41.78 Thursday as the Materials sector led with +1.03%, with gold's safe-haven bid holding up even as the US Dollar strengthened on the CPI print. The gold trade in 2026 has been driven by two overlapping themes: central bank purchases from EM reserve managers diversifying away from Treasuries, and retail demand from inflation-hedge buyers. Barrick at these levels trades at a meaningful premium to its 52-week average — the risk is that a Federal Reserve pivot delay (which the 3.8% CPI implies) strengthens the Dollar further and caps the gold price. For now, gold is absorbing the Dollar move better than in prior cycles.