Brazil Daily Briefing

Nu's +3.2% advance while traditional Brazilian bank proxies like Banco do Brasil and Itaú moved at half the speed confirms that the fintech-versus-incumbent rotation in LatAm is real and accelerating. Nu now has 85M+ customers across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, and its unit economics per active customer are improving as credit losses normalize. XP Inc.'s +2.7% — alongside its announcement of a major investment-management leadership summit — signals institutional confidence in LatAm's capital-markets deepening theme. The Selic at 10.75% is the tailwind: high real rates attract savings, and Nu + XP are the vehicles those savings increasingly flow through.

Peru's Credicorp (+3.3%) was the biggest single-name gainer in the LatAm set today, outperforming even Nubank. BAP benefits from Peru's commodity export economy (copper, gold, zinc) alongside consumer banking expansion — a dual macro tailwind as commodity prices held their ground today. Credicorp's ROE (historically 15%+) and disciplined provisioning make it the value anchor in LatAm banking compared to Nu's growth premium. The divergence between BAP's value story and Nu's growth story in the same sector on the same day is the clearest LatAm portfolio positioning signal available.

SQM's -1.68% decline continued the lithium sector's extended repricing from 2022-2023 spot price highs. Lithium carbonate spot prices have fallen more than 80% from peak, and SQM's earnings trajectory is following. The structural demand story (EV battery demand) remains intact, but the oversupply from Pilbara, CATL, and new Chilean entrants has overwhelmed it in the near term. Watch for a Pilbara Minerals or Albemarle production cut announcement — that's the catalytic signal that the lithium supply correction is mature enough to call a floor.