NEM +2.4%: Gold safe-haven bid returns
Newmont (NEM, $118.60, +2.43%) was Friday's strongest ASX-proxy performer as gold attracted safe-haven flows alongside the US tech rout and Middle East-driven Brent spike. Newmont, as the world's largest gold miner, is the most direct ASX-listed exposure to spot gold pricing — a $10/oz move in spot gold translates to roughly 2-3% in NEM's free cash flow per share. The setup for next week: if US Treasury yields continue rising on deficit supply pressure (10-year above 4.50%), gold historically faces headwinds from higher real yields. But if the tech rout deepens and equity volatility picks up, gold's safe-haven premium can override the yield headwind. The next Fedwatch reading on the November FOMC decision is the variable that resolves this tension.
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