Australia Daily Briefing

Kogan Group's 10-month FY26 update showing sales of A$875.6m (+13%) with EBITDA improving 17% is a strong signal that the Australian e-commerce recovery is real and sustainable. The Mighty Ape acquisition integration appears to be working — margins tracking toward the 6-9% FY26 guidance band. The 19% stock surge on the day reflects how far Kogan had been discounted by investors skeptical of the turnaround. Super funds with discretionary allocation will be reassessing the stock's place in their consumer book.

Mineral Resources' positive final investment decision on Mt Marion represents a high-conviction lithium demand bet. At a time when lithium spot prices remain soft following 2023's crash, committing $490m to an underground development and flotation plant signals management's view that the EV cycle's lithium demand recovery is 18-24 months away. The Mt Marion project in WA is a proven resource — this is de-risked capex. Watch lithium spot (spodumene concentrate) for confirmation that the demand recovery thesis is pricing in.

The ASX's two largest miners tracking iron ore sentiment in lockstep confirms that today's global commodities tone was broadly positive. China's steel production data will be the next catalyst — if industrial demand signals from China hold, the iron ore bid could sustain into next week. BHP's copper exposure adds optionality: any positive Chinese infrastructure stimulus news would amplify BHP's gains beyond the iron ore channel alone.