UK Pre-market Briefing — 2026-05-08: Oil Tops $100 as US-Iran Ceasefire Fractures, IAG Warns on Profits

Daily Market Briefing — AI synthesis of 30 top stories from the last 24 hours.

• Top theme: Oil surged back above $100/bbl after US and Iranian forces exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, further destabilising the ceasefire Trump extended indefinitely on 21 April — the dominant macro shock driving equities, input costs and consumer confidence across sectors.
• Second theme: Energy sector in sharp focus — Shell has booked $6.9bn in profits since the Iran war began, drawing renewed calls for windfall taxes, while BP plans to sell stakes in Net Zero Teesside and a second carbon capture project as it retreats from its green agenda; Centrica defended its acquisition of a gas-fired power plant as rational given ongoing supply uncertainty.
• Third theme: UK construction firms reported input cost inflation at its highest since June 2022 — one of the sharpest monthly rises in nearly 30 years — as Iran war-driven fuel and raw materials prices feed through; UK house prices also fell 5% from their early-2025 peak near £600,000, adding to domestic demand concerns.
• Fourth theme: IAG (British Airways parent) warned the City of a 'more substantial impact' on earnings from higher jet fuel costs throughout the rest of 2026, while saying it sees no supply issues over summer; separately, Whirlpool flagged a 'recession-level' industry decline in the US, cutting its earnings forecast and hiking prices by 10% with a further 4% rise planned.
• Fifth theme: Trump issued a 4 July ultimatum to the EU to ratify last year's trade deal and drop tariffs on US goods to zero, injecting fresh transatlantic trade tension into pre-market positioning; any further Hormuz incident or ceasefire breakdown overnight will be the pivotal open driver for energy, airline and construction stocks.

Full themes, ripple analysis, and what to watch on the article page.